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Mensagem por Pedro em Dom 15 Jun 2014, 9:14 pm

Looking for love? Formula isn't online, report says

If you’re bemoaning the lack of a Valentine, chances
are you’ve turned to what seem like a gazillion dating
websites for help.

Buyer beware, though, caution a team of
psychologists who’ve just published a lengthy report about
online dating, now a billion-dollar industry.

“There are sites that will tell you, ‘based on decades
of scientific research and basic math, we can find your
compatible mate for you,’” says lead author Eli Finkel, an
associate professor of social psychology at Northwestern
University. “That’s a pretty tantalizing offer.”

The problem, Finkel says, is that these websites
have no scientific evidence to back up their claims that they
can find your soulmate.

Well of course they don’t. Science and romance go
together like Demi and Ashton, right?

Actually, Finkel says, scientists have been studying
relationships for 80 years or so. And one thing is clear: It’s
impossible to determine that two people have what it takes
to maintain a long-term relationship before they’ve even
met.

Research has shown that three types of information
are needed to predict whether a couple will fall in love and
stay in love, Finkel says.

One is demographics. It helps if a potential mate is
age – and geographically appropriate.
A second, says Finkel: “What are the actual dynamics
between two people who have met?”

And last, “What are the life circumstances that
affect the couple?” Finkel says. “There’s no way they could
possibly know that a hurricane or a cancer diagnosis or a
sexy coworker is around the corner.”
Probably
the
best-known
matchmaking
website
is
eHarmony.com, which charges $59.95 for a month’s
subscription. eHarmony asks clients approximately 250
questions about 29 “dimensions of compatibility,” ranging
from conflict resolution to kindness to ambition. eHarmony’s
“matching algorithm” is proprietary, so the company did not
share it with Finkel and his coauthors.

In a statement, spokeswoman Becky Teraoka said
the proof of eHarmony’s success is in the numbers. On
average, she said, 542 people marry in the U.S. each day as a
result of being matched on eHarmony, according to a 2009
study conducted for the website by Harris Interactive.

“eHarmony’s matching system is based on years of
empirical and clinical research on married couples,” Teraoka
said. “As part of this work, we have studied what aspects of
personality, values and interest, and how pairs match on
them, are most predictive of relationship satisfaction.”


Finkel isn’t convinced. Speed-dating, which he’s also
studied, can tell prospective mates more about __________
than profiles from a website, he says. “The human mind was
built to size people up pretty quickly. The human mind was
not built to browse a profile and figure out whether
somebody is compatible.”

If you’re looking for love online, Finkel says, your
best bet is to save your money and stick with the less-
expensive websites in which you browse profiles, as
opposed to those that try to make matches for you.

But, warns Finkel, who met his wife the old-
fashioned way through a fix-up arranged by their
grandmothers, “get offline fairly quickly, because you’re
never going to be able to figure out from a profile and some
emails whether you’re compatible with somebody.”

Adapted from http://todayhealth.today.msnbc.msn.com/

015 | JFS 2012
Os termos bemoaning (1º parágrafo), tantalizing (3º
parágrafo), ranging (11º parágrafo) e fairly (16º parágrafo)
podem ser substituídos, respectivamente, por:

a) lamenting, fascinating, fluctuating e scantily.
b) regretting, teasing, varying e pretty.
c) complaining, charming, wandering e willingly.
d) weeping for, harassing, stretching e barely.
e) gloating, taunting, reaching e quite.

016 | JFS 2012
Levando em consideração o contexto, preencha correta e
coerentemente a lacuna presente no 14º parágrafo:

a) each other
b) one another
c) themselves
d) them
e) everyone

017 | JFS 2012
De acordo com o texto, marque o item correto.

a) Os sites de relacionamento utilizam eficientes métodos
matemáticos para relacionarem os usuários com os
parceiros mais possivelmente equivalentes.
b) Ciência e romance são completamente incompatíveis, daí
a ineficiência dos sites de relacionamento.
c) Os psicólogos que realizaram o estudo feito sobre os sites
de relacionamento concluíram que é impossível determinar
o grau de compatibilidade entre duas pessoas antes delas se
conhecerem pessoalmente.
d) Os fatores determinantes, utilizados pelos sites de
relacionamento, para que duas pessoas se apaixonem e
tenham uma união duradoura são idade, proximidade
geográfica, dinamismo conjugal e questões circunstanciais.
e) Eli Finkel e sua equipe não tiveram acesso ao algoritmo
utilizado pelo site de relacionamentos eHarmony.

Extract 1

Japan’s ship yards remain intact after quake

Japan’s major ship yards escaped the full impact of
the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that struck the
northeastern coast of the country with full force. An official
at the Japan Ship Exporters’ Association said the devastating
natural disaster “will have no impact on future export ship
orders at all”. Although several small ship yards in the
quake-hit areas were affected, major Japanese ship yards
that build large vessels for exports are concentrated in
western Japan and remain intact, the official said. Mitsui
Engineering & Ship building sustained “slight material
damages” in the company’s Kasai Center and Chiba Works
but did not consider such slight damages would cause
serious impact on operations. “The rotational schedule of
interruption of power supply due to the earthquake may
affect our operation at our works and subsidiaries. However,
the degree of the impact is not known now,” the company
said in a statement. Japanese export ship orders rose for the
15th consecutive month in February on a year-on-year basis.
Japanese ship builders received orders for 277 export vessels
– 259 bulk carriers, 10 oil tankers and eight general cargo
vessels – in the April-February period.

Adapted from www.australianmerchantnavy.com,
March 2011

Extract 2

Tsunami Debris Expected on U.S. Shores in 3 Years

The powerful tsunami triggered by the 9.0 Japanese
earthquake destroyed coastal towns near Sendai, washing
such things as houses and cars into the ocean. Projections of
where this debris might head have been made at the
International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at
Manoa. What their model predicts about the tsunami debris
is that they first spread out eastward from the Japan Coast
in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. In a year, the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument will see
pieces washing up on its shores; in two years, the remaining
Hawaiian islands will see some effects; in three years, the
plume will reach the US West Coast, dumping debris on
Californian beaches and the beaches of British Columbia,
Alaska, and Baja California. The debris will then drift into the
famous floating junkyard, the North Pacific Garbage Patch,
where it will wander around and break into smaller and
smaller pieces. In five years, Hawaii shore scan expect to see
another barrage of debris that is stronger and longer-lasting
than the first one. Much of the debris leaving the North
Pacific Garbage Patch ends upon Hawaii’s reef sand beaches.
These model projections will help to guide clean-up and
tracking operations.

Adapted from www.geog.ucsb.edu,
April2011


018 | EFOMM 2012
According to the first extract, it is correct to say that:

a) Japanese ship yards that build large vessels were virtually
unharmed by the impact of the tsunami.
b) all Japanese ship yards are not located on the path of the
tsunami.
c) Japanese ship yards located on the path of the tsunami
were slightly affected by the devastating waves.
d) shipyards in northwestern Japan were the most affected
by the earthquake and tsunami.
e) the earthquake and tsunami will have a big impact on the
Japanese ship yard industry over the next decade.

019 | EFOMM 2012
Read the following piece from extract 1 “The rotational
schedule of interruption of power supply due to the
earthquake may affect our operation at our works and
subsidiaries.” It may be inferred that:

a) Operations will be greatly affected by the constant
interruption of power supply.
b) The earthquake caused the interruption of power supply
without any consequences to the operations.
c) Some operations are expected to be affected by the
interruption of power supply.
d) Subsidiaries and works will benefit from the power supply
due to the earthquake.
e) Power supply was not affected by the earthquake and
operations will continue.

020 | EFOMM 2012
According to the following segment from the first extract:

“Japanese export ship orders rose for the 15th consecutive
month in February on a year-on-year basis.”

a) The information above is collected every 15 months.
b) The passage investigates the decrease in the number of
ship orders.
c) The figures above were released before the tsunami.
d) One can tell for sure that Japanese ship orders were
decreasing just before the tsunami.
e) Japanese ship orders have increased for over a year.

021 | EFOMM 2012
According to the second extract, the model developed by
the International Pacific Research Center intends to:

a) predict the movement of tsunamis in the ocean.
b) study the movement of litter in the ocean.
c) indicate the amount of garbage dumped in the ocean.
d) collect the Japanese tsunami debris to clean the ocean.
e) spread the debris in the ocean after the tsunami.

022 | EFOMM 2012
Extract 2 explains that the North Pacific Garbage Patch:

a) was formed after the Japanese tsunami.
b) will reach the shores of the US West Coast.
c) is formed by the garbage dumped on US shores.
d) is formed by the accumulation of garbage in the ocean.
e) releases debris that will eventually end up in Baja
California.

Wall Street's wild swings last week helped skew
both retirement portfolios and mathematical models of the
financial markets. After all, a standard Gaussian function —
a bell curve — would predict that such extreme dips and
rises would be exceedingly rare and not prone to following
one after the other on succeeding days.

Gaussian functions might be able to describe the
distribution of grades in a big college class, with most
students getting, say, B–/C+, and enable you to predict how
many students will get A's or fail. But evidently, they do a
poor job at explaining steep fluctuations in stock prices,
__________ (I) some economists and modelers think they
are the best tool available to describe financial markets.

So can any math accurately describe market
behavior and enable you to beat it? To find out, Scientific
American spoke with statistical physicist H. Eugene Stanley
of Boston University, a proponent of applying the
approaches and concepts of physics to economics.

Can mathematical models beat markets?

They haven't yet. Science is about empirical fact.
There is no question that optimistic people think they can
beat the market, but they don't do it consistently with
mathematical models. No model can consistently predict the
future. It can't possibly be.

So what can math predict?

What you can do is predict the risk of a given event.
The risk just means the chance that something bad will
happen, for example. That you can do with increasing
accuracy because we have more and more data. It's like
insurance companies: they cannot tell you when you are
going to die, but they can predict the risk that you will die
given the right information. You can do the same thing with
stocks. If you lose less, you get ahead of those __________
(II) lose more.

Why do economists and "quants" — those who use
quantitative analysis to make financial trades — have such
faith in their mathematical models then?

If they're just to reduce risk, then they're very
valuable. If you're worried, for example, about the segment
of the Chinese economy that deals with steel, you make a
model of what that whole market is all about and then you
see if we did this what would likely happen. They're right
some of the time. It's better than nothing.



But when they have excessive faith in these models,
it's not justified. Math starts with assumptions; the real
world does not work that way. Economics, which calls itself a
science, too often doesn't start with looking at empirical
facts in any great detail. Fifteen years ago even the idea of
looking at huge amounts of data did not exist. With a limited
amount of data, the chance of a rare event is very low,
which gave some economists a false sense of security that
long-tail events did not exist.

Why do you argue that financial markets are ruled not by
Gaussian functions but by power laws — relations in which
the frequency of one event varies as a power of some
attribute of that event and are generally more L-shape than
bell shape?

For anything that is random and fluctuating, like a
financial market, a Gaussian function is a wonderful way to
make a histogram of the outcome. If the things that
fluctuate are not correlated at all with __________ (III), then
it's demonstrable that a Gaussian function is the correct
histogram. The catch is: in a financial market, everything is
correlated. The proof of that is that if the stock market were
Gaussian, then you'd never have a flash crash*. (…)

Adapted from http://www.scientificamerican.com/

* The Flash Crash was a United States stock market crash on
May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average
plunged about 900 points — or about nine percent — only
to recover those losses within minutes. (From Wikipedia)

023 | JFS 2011
H. Eugene Stanley:

a) acredita que a aplicabilidade da função gaussiana para se
fazer previsões sobre o comportamento dos mercados
financeiros é válida, porém falha.
b) acredita que o método utilizado pelas companhias de
seguro para fazer previsões pode ser aplicado ao mercado
financeiro de maneira mais eficiente do que os métodos
vigentes.
c) acredita que a fé depositada pelos economistas, que
utilizam a análise quantitativa para fazer transações
comerciais, em seus modelos não é justificada.
d) acredita que a falsa sensação de segurança, sentida pelos
economistas, é justificada pela grande quantidade de dados
estatísticos que eles costumam coletar sobre os mercados
financeiros.
e) acredita que a aplicação da função gaussiana na análise
dos mercados financeiros faria com que o cenário de ocorrer
um flash crash fosse menos provável.

024 | JFS 2011
As lacunas I, II e III, presentes no texto, devem ser
preenchidas, respectivamente, por:

a) I. although – II. which – III. one another
b) I. however – II. who – III. each other
c) I. although – II. who – III. one another
d) I. however – II. whom – III. each other
e) I. although – II. whom – III. one another

025 | JFS 2011
De acordo com o texto:

a) as oscilações do mercado financeiro podem ser
comparadas aos altos e baixos que a maioria dos estudantes
de ensino médio enfrenta no que diz respeitos às notas dos
exames avaliativos.
b) a mais recente crise em Wall Street poderia ter sido
prevista se a função gaussiana tivesse sido aplicada
corretamente.
c) uma curva de sino, considerada padrão quando a função
gaussiana é aplicada, indica que oscilações no mercado de
ações são raras, embora suscetíveis a serem constantes.
d) há outros métodos, além da função gaussiana, que
permitem aos economistas fazer análises dos mercados
financeiros.
e) apenas fórmulas matemáticas e conceitos físicos
conseguem descrever o comportamento dos mercados
financeiros de maneira precisa.

026 | JFS 2011
Marque o título que melhor contempla o tema do texto.

a) How to Cope with the Financial Markets’ Crisis?
b) The Stock Markets’ Flash Crash
c) Economy & Mathematics: How to Join Forces and Solve
Crises?
d) The Financial Markets’ Mathematical Revolution
e) Can Math Beat Financial Markets?

When football __________ professional in South
Africa in 1959, 12 clubs broke from the amateur ranks.
However, in the strict days of Apartheid, these pioneers
_____ whites-only organizations and __________ today, all
but a few, defunct. One of the survivors is Arcadia from
Tshwane/ Pretoria, an outfit that today competes in the
amateur ranks and concentrates on junior football.

Adapted from http://www.fifa.com/worldcup

027 | AFA 2011
Mark the alternative which completes the gaps from the text
correctly.

a) had gone – have been – were
b) went – were – are
c) have been – have been – would be
d) was – had been – will be


028 | AFA 2011
The text affirms that:

a) days of Apartheid were extinguished as well as the
prejudice against black football players.
b) the pioneers of profession football in South Africa were
basically white.
c) there are no more organizations (professional or amateur)
like the ones from the past.
d) in early 50’s in South Africa there weren’t amateur
football clubs anymore.

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